Wednesday, June 7, 2023

College football picks, predictions, odds for Week 4: Auburn, North Carolina among best bets

Each week, I will use this space to tell you what I think are a few of the best bets heading into the weekend. I will also throw in an upset of the week, which will be a team that is at least a touchdown underdog that I am picking to win outright.

I will also give you picks on other games involving potential College Football Playoff teams. Considering most teams only played a few games, just about everybody is technically a CFP candidate right now, so I’ll go with the top 12 teams in the AP Top 25 poll until things settle down.

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Last week was weird. I missed all three of my regular picks, but hit on the upset special. The regular picks are 4-5, but it’s early and I look to bounce back this week. The upset special is off to a great start at 2-1. I hope I found another gem.

Here are the best bets for Week 4 with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Week 4 Picks

Georgia Tech at No. 21 North Carolina 

Latest Odds: North Carolina Tar Heels -12

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Unlike the Yellow Jackets’ opponent last week, North Carolina has a functioning offense. OK, it’s better than merely “functioning”. Georgia Tech has only scored 29 points total in two games against FBS opposition and one of those opponents was Northern Illinois. UNC has scored 59 in back-to-back games. The Tar Heels may not reach that number this week, but they will score enough to cover this line. Pick: North Carolina (-12)

Georgia State at No. 23 Auburn 

Latest Odds: Auburn Tigers -27

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Auburn is coming off a good effort, but disappointing loss at Penn State. The Tigers have crushed their other opponents, and while Georgia State is not as bad as Akron, the Panthers also lost by more than 27 to Army and North Carolina. The Tigers should cover this easily. Pick: Auburn (-27)

Bowling Green at Minnesota 

Latest Odds: Minnesota Golden Gophers -31

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It took a couple games for the Gophers to figure out how to replace the production of Mohamed Ibrahim. It is using a committee, led by Trey Potts, who ran for 125 yards and three touchdowns at Colorado last week. Bowling Green is not going to be able to do much with the Minnesota ground game. Pick: Minnesota (-31)

Upset of the Week

No. 25 Kansas State at Oklahoma State 

Latest Odds: Oklahoma State Cowboys -6

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Two undefeated teams meet up in Stillwater, Oklahoma, on Saturday. The Cowboys have been doing just enough to win, which is fine at Boise State, but less than ideal generally. It’s playing with fire. Kansas State has handed the only loss to the two FBS teams that have played so far and have won those games comfortably. I just feel like the Wildcats are playing better and this line is too big. Pick: Kansas State (+200)

Other CFP candidates

Southern Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-44.5) Pick: Alabama

No. 2 Georgia (134.5) at Vanderbilt (+34.5) Pick: Georgia

Arizona at No. 3 Oregon (-28.5) Pick: Oregon

West Virginia at No. 4 Oklahoma (-16.5) Pick: West Virginia

Colorado State at No. 5 Iowa (-23) Pick: Iowa

No. 7 Texas A&M (-5.5) vs. No. 16 Arkansas (+5.5) Pick: Arkansas

No. 9 Clemson (-10) at NC State Pick: Under 47

Akron at No. 10 Ohio State (-49) Pick: Akron

Tennessee at No. 11 Florida (-20) Pick: Florida

No. 12 Notre Dame vs. No. 18 Wisconsin (-5.5) Pick: Wisconsin

Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 4, and which Top 25 favorite goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,000 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.

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