This weekend brings a cracking slate of Premier League matches including a repeat of the Champions League final, the visit of Liverpool to an impressive newly-promoted side and the 204th north London derby. Here’s what to keep an eye out for.
Arsenal vs. Tottenham: Kane takes shots again
It is rather curious that similar play to that which saw Harry Kane garlanded with praise at this stage of last season has now brought vocal debate over the England captain’s form, fitness and general demeanor since his failed attempts to leave Tottenham. Twelve months ago Kane was adding further feathers to his bow by functioning as creator and scorer, now the punditocracy fear he has lost his way because he is occupying much the same spots on the pitch.
Ultimately end product dictates the consensus view on Kane. Last season a string of difficult passes that set Heung-min Son up for difficult finishes resulted in goals and he was the do it all center forward who was in the prime of his career. Now he is dropping into similar spots outside the box, particularly in the outside left channel, and all is doom and gloom. That perhaps suggests that people were rather too high on his creative flourishing in 2020-21 where he topped the assists charts largely because of eight goals laid on in his first six games (seven of which were for Son) and six in the 27 that followed.
The significant difference that the heatmaps above suggest — and the sample size for the 2021-22 one is just 288 minutes so should be taken with a grain of salt — is that he is operating more on the left channel than the space just outside the penalty area where he made such hay in 2020-21. Last season he attempted far more shots from outside the box than he had in the two previous years and scored more goals. Though he actually hit the target more infrequently. Doubling his tally from outside the box from two to four might seem encouraging, but ultimately Tottenham are not a better team for having Kane take low probability shots from outside the box.
He needs to get within that 18 yard space and get back to taking shots again. As has been widely noted, he has not been doing that so far this season with just four shots — half from outside the box — in 288 minutes. The player who averaged four shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season and more than five in 2017-18 is now taking only slightly more than Davinson Sanchez. That is a worry for Tottenham and their supporters but it is also going to change. A player as relentless in their pursuit of goals and individual accolades as Kane is not simply going to keep hovering 40 yards away from goal if it is not bringing him or Spurs success.
There were signs in the midweek EFL Cup tie with Wolverhampton Wanderers that he was drifting more towards the penalty area but a north London derby feels like the opportune moment for Kane to rediscover himself. The fixture’s record scorer, whenever he faces the Gunners he seems to be able to pare his game back to what works (and take a fair few penalties), occupying the box more frequently, darting in behind opposition center backs he might otherwise drift away from and taking lots and lots of shots.
On occasion in these games Kane can be guilty of a penchant for the spectacular; in his last great derby game when Spurs beat Arsenal 2-1 in July 2020 he found himself in a spot eerily familiar to the one from which he scored that legendary goal in 2016 and, despite having Son in space outside the box, concluded “I can score that million in one goal again”. He didn’t but at least he took the shot. Tottenham could (mostly) do with him taking that approach this weekend.
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Chelsea vs. Man City: Tuchel reverts back to last season’s defense
What then to make of Chelsea’s defense so far this season? At the surface level all looks rather rosy at Stamford Bridge where only one Premier League goal has been conceded in five games, three of which ought to have been tricky tests against Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham. Those games bought seven points, one goal conceded and in the case of the draw at Anfield a second half that had the look and feel of a defensive masterclass against the league’s best offense.
Those 45 minutes at Anfield go a fair way to warping Chelsea’s expected goals (xG) against figure for the first five games but they do not entirely explain why there are seven teams with better defensive records, in terms of xG, than Thomas Tuchel’s side. Analytically speaking, the team that dominated domestic and European competition between January 26 and the end of last season were as outstanding a defensive team as there has been in top tier European football in recent years. You could not get into their penalty area. You could not take good shots. You certainly could not run past N’Golo Kante.
Perhaps the absence of the Frenchman goes some way to explaining why they are just that one iota more vulnerable at the back. Perhaps the standards they set last season were simply beyond a level that any team could realistically be expected to achieve for a longer period of time. They allowed opponents just 0.6xG per game in the Premier League, most of which was made up of bad shots (they only faced five open play shots worth more than 0.3xG in 19 top flight matches under Tuchel last season). Facing Chelsea last season there seemed to be more chance that you would not get a single good scoring chance than that you would.
That seems to be changing somewhat this season. Kepa Arrizabalaga had to be swift off his line to keep Aston Villa from scoring more than one in the EFL Cup whilst the senior defensive line gave up good chances to Ollie Watkins, Artem Dzyuba and Heung-min Son in recent weeks. Though the latter was not particularly sizeable in terms of xG when the shot was taken it was the sort of dangerous opportunity that the Korean finishes unusually lethally.
This is merely early in the season so — it could be something or nothing — but the Blues look to be pushing a little higher up the field and in so doing are leaving slightly more space for opponents to attack in behind. Opta sequencing data suggests opponents are averaging around 12 percent less time on the ball and 14 fewer passes per spell in possession this season than in Tuchel’s half of last. Certainly the likes of Jorginho do appear to be stepping higher up the pitch more frequently, looking to get the ball back in possessions where it can be quickly moved to Romelu Lukaku.
Trying to win the ball in more advanced areas will open up space in behind and it is notable that Chelsea’s Premier League opponents have gone from attempting 0.4 through balls per game to 3.2. Some, like the one to Son above, have brought the sort of dangerous opportunities that Edouard Mendy did not really face last season and has faced altogether more frequently this. Tuchel certainly does not like to see his goalkeeper getting praise, for obvious reasons. “I don’t like it too much when he’s in the spotlight,” he said after the league win against Aston Villa. “I like it more when he gets the praise from us for one-and-a-half saves, for being concentrated, for pushing the line up high, and clearing some situations as a sweeper. If he is more or less invisible to the spectators in the stadium then I’m super happy. It means we did not allow many chances.”
Ahead of the visit of Manchester City to Stamford Bridge, Tuchel does at least have a template that his side have applied recently with great success. Dropping deeper as they did in defending for a draw at Anfield may have given Liverpool plenty of shots and a decent wedge of xG (1.5 to be precise) but the Blues were of course a man down after Reece James’ sending off and still looked utterly at ease with their task. Guarding their box suits their defenders and is probably a more effective way to hold Pep Guardiola’s side at bay, denying them space in behind and forcing them to cross from deep angles.
Brentford vs. Liverpool: Bees make Reds struggle for win
On the subject of teams with intriguing defenses, there is a remarkable side near the top of the opponent xG table five games into the season. Only Manchester City have allowed a better shot profile from opposition attackers than Brentford, who have conceded just 3.92 xG off the 51 shots that have been sent at David Raya’s goal over the last five games. One ought to caveat their fast start by noting that their fixture list has been relatively favorable since their opening day win over an Arsenal side who were blown away by the atmosphere at the Brentford Community Stadium. Equally this is a team that just came up through the Championship play offs. There aren’t supposed to be any favorable fixtures.
The early signs from life in the Premier League suggest that Brentford have an impressive capacity for allowing opponents to go this far and no further. Of teams that average less than 45 percent possession only Everton (a team with an even more generous early season fixture list) have allowed fewer ball touches in their penalty area than their 112, four less than Chelsea.
Thomas Frank has not had to defend his box solely by plugging his three center backs into there either; it helps the Bees’ cause that they have one of the league’s most effective sweeper keepers in David Raya. No goalkeeper in the league has had more touches outside the box than his 50, many of them helping to quell counter attacks in behind the defense. He is also, it should be noted at this juncture, looking to be very strong at coming off his line to claim high balls into the box.
Ahead of the back three Brentford have energetic, diligent defenders including Christian Norgaard, Vitaly Janelt and Sergi Canos, who ranks in the top five in the Premier League for possession recoveries and leads the competition in tackles made. That’s not bad going for a Barcelona academy graduate and former Liverpool prospect who began his career as an attack-first winger. Though tackle statistics can on occasion offer a misleading view of defensive aptitude, it is worth at least noting that Frank’s side have so far made 96 of them, more than any other side. It is just another way they keep opponents from that dangerous area in and around the penalty area.
Will it be enough to hold Liverpool entirely at bay? One would have to assume not. Jurgen Klopp’s side are, by a 25 percent margin, the highest shot takers in the English top flight and unsurprisingly lead the way on xG. In every league match bar one this season they have made shooting chances for themselves worth more than 2.4xG. Even against one of the early season’s top defenses they will get opportunities to score. But they might not find them as easily as they have of late.
