Is there anything better in sports than New York sports teams giving New Yorkers reasons to be mad? As you probably know, the Yankees lost to the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card last night, and oh, how I enjoyed washing myself in the salt that flooded my timeline. Any time a New York team loses in the postseason, everybody has to be fired. The general manager, the manager, the third-base coach, the radio announcer, everybody.
It’s hilarious, and it’s also accurate sometimes. The funniest moment was when I heard Yankees manager Aaron Boone say during his postgame press conference that the rest of baseball “has closed the gap on us.”
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What gap? The Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009. I’d say the gap has been closed for a while now, Aaron. Unless you mean the gap between how many titles the Yankees have won compared to everyone else because that gap is closing for the 12th straight year.
Also, to my editor, Nick Parco, sorry for making you read this, but it could be worse. You could be a Mets fan.
- Speaking of the Mets, that’s a big ol’ nope from Theo Epstein.
- The Urban Meyer Apology Tour rages on, and could be coming to a city near you!
- One of the top cornerbacks in the league is heading to Carolina.
- A top NFL Draft prospect is having foot surgery.
All right, let’s talk about tonight’s Wild Card game. I bet this one doesn’t end with a bunch of people having to be fired.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
⚾ Cardinals at Dodgers, 8:10 p.m. | TV: TBS
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-120): If you followed the parlay I shared on Monday night, you’re already invested in the under for tonight’s game, so I understand you might want to pass on it tonight. For the rest of you: don’t. There’s just so much going on here that pushes us toward the under. Dodger Stadium is usually depicted as a pitcher’s park, but the numbers don’t back that up. It’s actually a neutral park according to Statcast’s Park Factors, and it plays relatively the same at night as during the day.
Why I like it tonight is that it’s a park that is homer-friendly but below-average when it comes to allowing other base hits. In tonight’s pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Adam Wainwright, Scherzer is the more homer-prone of the two, but he allows a lot less contact. The contact Wainwright surrenders is usually soft and not airborne. Solid bullpens back both, and the Cardinals have one of the best defenses in the league behind Wainwright.
Plus, we have to remember this is an elimination game. There’s a tendency in every single major sport for elimination games to be lower scoring. This is likely due to the intensity of every play or pitch, both from the players and managers. We saw it last night with Gerrit Cole getting yanked early, and if anybody gets in trouble tonight, they’ll be yanked too.
Key Trend: The under is 7-2 in last nine meetings in Los Angeles.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is a blistering 84-57 in his last 141 MLB picks, returning more than $1,300. He is also 40-20 in his last 60 MLB picks overall, and has a pick for tonight’s Wild Card game.
💰 NFL Playoff Futures
With a very limited slate of action tonight, why not look at some NFL playoff futures? There’s a long way to go in the season, but I see some value available on the board. These are my four favorite best right now.
The Pick: Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs (+160): I don’t think the Panthers are quite as good as their 3-1 start suggests, nor do I see them being a serious threat to Tampa in the South. I do see them as a strong wild card contender, though, because not only are they 3-1, but they have three games remaining against the Saints and Falcons, plus three games against the Eagles, Giants and Football Team. They also draw a Dolphins team that could be in full 2022 mode by the time they meet in late November and a mediocre Patriots team. I don’t think it’s insane to think this Panthers team can win 11 or 12 games.
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs (-200): It’s never as fun paying prices like this on futures, but it’s worth it in this spot. The Chargers are good. I do not expect Kansas City to remain in last place in the AFC West, but when I look at the rest of the division, I think the Chargers have a much better shot of being the team that keeps Kansas City from winning the division than either Oakland or Denver do. Now, what you might want to do is wait on this a bit. The Chargers have the Browns and Ravens coming up in the next two weeks, but the schedule gets a lot easier afterward. If they lose one of those games, you might get a better price on them at that point. Still, I’m plenty happy with where it is now.
The Pick: San Francisco 49ers to miss the playoffs (+120): The 49ers are currently tied for last at 2-2 in what might be the best division in the league. Jimmy Garoppolo is hurt, and we don’t know how long he’s going to be out. Trey Lance did not look ready for primetime when he had to replace Jimmy G on Sunday, and even if Garoppolo only misses a few weeks, he might miss both of San Francisco’s games against the Cardinals. Also, I can’t ignore that San Francisco’s two wins have come against Detroit and Philadelphia, but they’ve lost at home to Green Bay and Seattle. There aren’t a lot of Detroits and Phillys left on the schedule!
The Pick: Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs (-280): I know it’s a heavy price, but I can’t believe it’s not heavier. The Dolphins are 1-3, have lost Tua Tagovailoa for a while, and just placed Will Fuller on the IR. Do you trust Jacoby Brissett to lead this team to the playoffs? Now, the Dolphins have plenty of beatable teams remaining on the schedule, but they’ve given us no reason to believe they’re capable of winning all those games. It’s hard to imagine there will be more than one team making the playoffs from the AFC East, and Buffalo already has a two-game lead on everybody else in it.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Need help with your NFL confidence pool? SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model has you covered. Not only will it tell you which teams are likely to win, but how confident you should be in it happening.
⚾ Wild Card Props Party
I know we’re on the under, but let’s bet some props too.
- Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts (-120)
- Adam Wainwright Under 4.5 strikeouts (-175)
- Corey Seager to hit a HR (+275)
