Two women on solid winning streaks will clash on Saturday night when Mackenzie Dern meets Marina Rodriguez in the strawweight main event of UFC Fight Night. The winner creeps closer to a title shot against the winner of the upcoming rematch between division champion Rose Namajunas and former champ Weili Zhang.
After starting her mixed martial arts career with seven straight victories, Dern took time away from the sport after becoming pregnant with her daughter. She suffered her first career setback in her first fight back, dropping an October 2019 bout to Amanda Ribas by decision. Dern has since gone on a four-fight winning streak that includes three wins by first-round submission. In her most recent fight, Dern submitted Nina Nunes with an armbar.
Rodriguez is riding a winning streak of her own, having picked up two consecutive wins. Similar to Dern, that streak began after suffering the first loss of her career. Despite only having one professional loss, Rodriguez only has four wins in her seven most recent fights, having battled Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws. Her two most recent wins came with a TKO of Ribas and a decision win over Michelle Waterson.
Can’t get enough boxing and MMA? Get the latest in the world of combat sports from two of the best in the business. Subscribe to Morning Kombat with Luke Thomas and Brian Campbell for the best analysis and in-depth news.
Here’s the fight card for UFC Fight Night with the latest odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
|
Mackenzie Dern -170 |
Marina Rodriguez +145 |
Women’s strawweight |
|
Randy Brown -230 |
Jared Gooden +190 |
Welterweight |
|
Matheus Nicolau -200 |
Tim Elliott +170 |
Flyweight |
| Sabina Mazo -170 | Mariya Agapova +145 |
Women’s flyweight |
| Phil Hawes -330 |
Deron Winn +260 |
Middleweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: Oct. 9 | Start time: 4 p.m. ET
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
Stream: ESPN+
Prediction
Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez: Dern has a problem with getting a bit too reckless with her striking, trying to land bombs without setting them up. That’s where Rodriguez will have her best opportunities to win the fight. Interestingly, while Dern is vulnerable in Rodriguez’s best area, Rodriguez is vulnerable to Dern’s best route to victory. Rodriguez struggles with takedown defense, having only defended 62% of attempted takedowns. Dern’s wild striking has led to her having a striking accuracy of only 38% compared to 48% for Rodriguez. Dern also absorbs strikes at a higher rate than Rodriguez (3.57 strikes/minute vs. 3.24). If Dern decides to play around on the striking end of things, the fight could go badly for her. Rodriguez is the longer fighter and the better striker and will outwork Dern in a striking battle. Dern is a force of nature on the ground, however, and Rodriguez struggles just enough with keeping the fight standing to give Dern the edge. Pick: Dern via SUB2
