The Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning AFC champions, but they desperately need a victory when they host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs (3-4) have been plagued by turnovers and poor defense and come in off an ugly performance in a 27-3 loss to the Titans. Kansas City turned the ball over three times and allowed Ryan Tannehill to throw for 270 yards. The Giants (2-5) turned in a rousing defensive performance against the Panthers, posting six sacks and holding Carolina to just 173 yards in a 25-3 victory. New York is 11-3 all-time against Kansas City and has won five of the past six meetings.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is a 10-point favorite in the latest Giants vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over-Under for total points scored is 52. Before you consider your Chiefs vs. Giants picks, you have to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,700 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 8 of the 2021 season on an incredible 126-85 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Monday night’s Giants vs. Chiefs matchup. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Giants:
- Giants vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10
- Giants vs. Chiefs over-under: 52 points
- Giants vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -550, New York +400
- Giants: New York is 12-4 against the spread as a road underdog since 2019
- Chiefs: Under has hit in last two Chiefs games
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City has been struggling, especially on defense, but its offense can hang with any in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has battled turnovers, but the Chiefs rank third in the league in total offense (419.3 yards per game) and eighth in scoring (26.9 points). Mahomes has 2,093 passing yards and 18 TDs, and receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce can still expose defenses. The favorite is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings.
Hill has 641 yards and five touchdowns, while Kelce has 533 and four scores, and receivers Mecole Hardman (289 yards), Byron Pringle (243) and Demarcus Robinson (133) also need to be accounted for. The defense has been giving up yardage, but it has playmakers. Mike Danna (three sacks) and Chris Jones (two) are the leaders up front, and Tyrann Mathieu (two interceptions, TD) and Daniel Sorenson (37 tackles, one sack) hold down the secondary. Giants QB Daniel Jones has been sacked 14 times and averages just 7.2 yards per pass attempt.
Why the Giants can cover
New York’s defense was dominant last week and comes in with confidence against a team that leads the league with 17 turnovers. The Giants haven’t been strong on the defensive side, but they allow 243 passing yards per game (14th in NFL), and the Chiefs have struggled to run the ball with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out with injury. Darrel Williams is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, so Leonard Williams (4.5 sacks), Austin Johnson (three) and rookie Azeez Ojulari (5.5) will get after Mahomes. Ojulari had 2.5 sacks last week as the Giants terrorized Sam Darnold all day.
Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions and has been pressured into mistakes. Quarterback Daniel Jones has passed for 1,727 yards and has a team-high 223 rushing yards.
How to make Giants vs. Chiefs picks
The model has zeroed in on Monday Night Football’s Giants vs. Chiefs matchup. It’s leaning Under the total, with the model suggesting both offenses will be one-dimensional. It also says that one side of the spread is hitting well over than 50 percent of the time. You can only get these picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Chiefs vs. Giants on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Giants spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 126-85 roll on its top-rated NFL picks.
