Despite missing the playoffs by two games — with more regular-season wins than the World Series champion Braves! — the Seattle Mariners were one of the biggest surprise teams of the 2021 season. They went 90-72, though that also came with a negative-51 run differential and a 33-19 record in one-run games, which many people will point out means a downturn is coming.
The Mariners, however, have the opportunity to build off the unexpected success in 2021 due to a good stockpile of young talent and lots of financial flexibility. The estimated payroll right now for the players on the roster for sure is around $50 million. They’ve run a payroll as high as nearly $158 million (2018) before. Given how the ballpark was full for the final series of the season, in a rarity, surely ownership is ready to strike while the proverbial iron is hot, right?
As such, we expect the Mariners to be major players in free agency, but we also know club president Jerry Dipoto isn’t shy about making trades.
Starting pitching
Top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert showed enough in his rookie year to earn a rotation spot for 2022. Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen deserve to retain spots as well. We could debate whether or not it’s wise to head into the season with Justin Dunn as the fifth starter, but there’s no debate that if the Mariners plan to contend, they can’t trust Justus Sheffield or anyone else in the organization at present.
That means the Mariners should be going after at least one starting pitcher and probably two (depth is always key to absorb any injuries and/or underperformance).
For one, the ideal outcome would be to splurge for an ace. That knocks down Flexen, Gilbert and Gonzales to mid-rotation arms.
Robbie Ray? Max Scherzer? You never know!
If they miss out there, which on a gut feeling seems likely, the Mariners could be shopping in the Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman tier. They also might be forced into the risk area with the likes of Jon Gray, Steven Matz, Carlos Rodón, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Anthony DeSclafani and company. If they do end up shopping in the latter group, I’d prefer they grab two of them. Again, the depth.
As previously noted, the trade market is always a plausible avenue here as well. We haven’t heard a ton of starting pitcher names on the trade block and it might have to wait until after the CBA situation is resolved, but the Reds seem like they are unloading. Sonny Gray and/or Luis Castillo (his price will be steep, though) could work. Maybe the Rockies would make Kyle Freeland and/or Antonio Senzatela available and Dipoto shoots for an escape-Coors situation?
An infielder, but apparently not a shortstop
With the departure of Kyle Seager, Abraham Toro looks slotted for either second or third base right now. The Mariners can’t count on Dylan Moore as an everyday player at this point, but that’s how things look at present. That means they need either a second or third baseman (if not both, pushing Toro to utility duties).
A group of big free agents this offseason are shortstops, but it looks like Dipoto has promised J.P. Crawford he’s staying put. He emphatically told reporters at the GM Meetings that Crawford is the long-term shortstop. That eliminates Carlos Correa from the equation and likely counts out Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Marcus Semien as well (Corey Seager surely wouldn’t go to Seattle after the bad exit from his brother).
There’s still the small chance the Mariners could knock over Báez, Semien or Story with a financial offer attached to a “please play second base” urging and that they’d take it. Semien just played second all year, Báez can easily handle it (though he’s said publicly he only wants to move there permanently if he gets to play with Francisco Lindor) and Story’s arm strength is waning. Báez could also feasibly play third, too.
Speaking of former Cubs and third base, Kris Bryant is absolutely a fit here. Keep your eyes on Bryant-Mariners rumors. He might be the favorite.
Past him, it’s hard to see Chris Taylor wanting a second go-round here after how the first time went, but sometimes money talks. Eduardo Escobar could work and he can play either second or third.
The trade route could work here as well, especially if the A’s are open to dealing within the division. Matt Chapman had a terrible offensive season in 2021, but we’ve seen him hit like an MVP before and having Chapman playing third base beside Crawford on the left side would certainly be enticing to the pitching staff.
Perhaps the biggest swings for the fences in the trade market? José Ramírez or a reunion with Ketel Marte.
Another big bat
The Mariners were 11th in the AL in runs last year. They were last in average, 13th in OBP and 14th in slugging. There are areas where internal improvement should be counted out (Jarred Kelenic, for example), but they also lost Kyle Seager’s 35 homers. Just one name listed in the above section isn’t likely to make this offense very scary. They need multiple offensive upgrades.
Perhaps there’s an avenue where they add two guys from above. Ramírez can play second with Bryant at third, or Bryant could shift to corner outfield spots, just to name one scenario where they add two big names.
They could also shop for offensive upgrades elsewhere. If the Cubs end up trading Willson Contreras, he works. He is a good enough hitter to serve as DH when he’s not catching, too.
Just trying to add thump puts free agents like Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto and, yes, old friend Nelson Cruz on the table. Trade candidate Matt Olson is also enticing.
It feels like the home run offseason for the Mariners is adding two of the starting pitchers and three of the bats I named somewhere above, but a more reasonable expectation might be one big-name starter, two quality bats and then a litany of depth additions.
However they get to the 2022 season, it won’t be quietly. Expect the Mariners to be very aggressive this offseason to capitalize on the momentum from the 2021 squad.
