Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 131-94 run

The Denver Broncos (6-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) will face off in an AFC West divisional battle on Sunday Night Football. Denver picked up its first victory within the division last week, beating Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers 28-13 at home. Kansas City is coming off a bye and enters Sunday Night Football riding a four-game winning streak. 

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is favored by 9.5 points in the latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 47. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Broncos vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and SNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and Sunday Night Football betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs:

  • Broncos vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -9.5 
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs over-under: 47 points 
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -450, Denver +350 
  • KC: Under is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six games as favorites 
  • DEN: Broncos are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games in Week 13

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

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Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City trots out the second-ranked total offense in the NFL. The Chiefs average 402.4 total yards and 25.5 points per game. This unit has gone over 400 total yards in five games this season, including three straight from Weeks 2 to 4. Kansas City’s best outing came against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10, when they finished with 516 total yards of offense. 

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went 35-of-50 for 406 yards with five passing touchdowns that week. The Texas Tech product had a sensational 38-yard touchdown pass to running back Darrel Williams. On 3rd and 11, Mahomes bought time in the pocket before uncorking a bomb to Williams, who outmuscled Raiders safety Jonathan Abram for the score. Kansas City’s offense is always a threat to score plenty of points, and the Chiefs have won 11 straight games against the Broncos.

Why the Broncos can cover 

Denver has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are ranked ninth in total defense (330.8) and third in points per game (17.8). This group has allowed fewer than 20 points in seven games this season. Safety Justin Simmons is second on the team with 56 total tackles. The Boston College product is sixth in the NFL in pass deflections (11) and seventh in interceptions (four). 

Rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II has played lights-out football. Surtain II is fourth on the squad in tackles with 37 and second on the team with three interceptions. Last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, Surtain II finished with five total tackles, two interceptions, and two pass deflections. The sticky-handed cornerback picked off Justin Herbert and returned it 70 yards for a touchdown.

How to make Broncos vs. Chiefs picks 

SportsLine’s model is leaning under the total, projecting the teams to combine for 47 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Broncos vs. Chiefs picks at SportsLine

So who wins Chiefs vs. Broncos on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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