The No. 14 Florida Gators welcome the Texas Southern Tigers on Monday. Florida is 6-1 this season with a perfect 4-0 mark in home games. Mike White’s team is off to a strong start, even with a road loss to Oklahoma on Wednesday. Texas Southern is 0-7 in 2021-22, though the Tigers are 5-2 against the spread.
Tipoff is at 6 p.m. ET in Gainesville. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Gators as 22-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 136.5 in the latest Florida vs. Texas Southern odds. Before locking in any Texas Southern vs. Florida picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Florida vs. Texas Southern. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and betting trends for Texas Southern vs. Florida:
- Florida vs. Texas Southern spread: Florida -22
- Florida vs. Texas Southern over-under: 136.5 points
- TS: The Tigers are 5-2 against the spread in 2021-22
- FLA: The Gators are 5-2 against the spread this season
Why Texas Southern can cover
This is a very difficult matchup for Texas Southern, but the Tigers have some strengths to lean on. Texas Southern is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, securing 36.8 percent of missed shots, and the Tigers are above-average in free-throw creation rate. Florida is outside the top 250 in free-throw prevention on defense, and Texas Southern should live at the charity stripe.
On the opposite side, the Tigers are holding opponents to 29.4 percent from 3-point range, and Texas Southern sports a 10.5 percent block rate for the season. Florida is shooting just 32 percent on 3-point attempts, and the Gators are struggling with live-ball turnovers on the offensive side. Opponents have a 10.3 percent steal rate against Florida, and Texas Southern could be aggressive in trying to create transition chances.
Why Florida can cover
Florida’s defense is tremendous. The Gators are allowing opponents to shoot just 46.5 percent on 2-point attempts and 25.5 percent on 3-point attempts. Florida also boasts a 73.5 percent defensive rebound with top-25 marks in block rate (15.8 percent) and steal rate (13.4 percent). Florida is facing a Texas Southern team that is near the bottom of the pack nationally in shooting efficiency and ball security, making the matchup even juicier.
The Gators are also good on offense, headlined by Collin Castleton. Castleton is one of the best big men in the country, averaging 14.7 points, 10.1 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game, and Florida has a 34.1 percent offensive rebound rate this season. The Gators are shooting more than 51 percent on 2-point attempts, and Texas Southern’s opponents are shooting 53.5 percent inside the 3-point arc. The Tigers are also outside the top 300 nationally in free-throw prevention, and Florida can use that to its advantage in getting to the line with regularity.
