Why the Bucks will cool off the Rockets and the Army-Navy Game will be low scoring once again

Most of us bet for fun, but if you want to bet and also win money in the long run, there’s a crucial step you have to take. Once you place a bet, that’s not the end of it. After a game ends, a good bettor studies their results to see what’s wrong in their process or what’s right. Sometimes your wins are bad picks, and your losses were good, and things didn’t go your way.

I bring this up because of what happened last night. Now, this isn’t an instance where I think I was unlucky with my Steelers pick because I don’t think I deserved to win. Still, I don’t think there was anything wrong with the thought process because the Vikings only confirmed what I thought about them.

I said the Vikings couldn’t be trusted as favorites, and when they blew a 29-0 lead with barely more than a quarter to play only to hold on for a 36-28 victory, I was vindicated. Of course, while vindication is nice, a Steelers cover would’ve been better, but I digress.

The point is, regardless of the result, if you want to win in the long run, you can’t just study the games before they happen, but afterward as well. But before you do any of that, read these stories first.

• The Packers have turned their defense around in 2021.
• Reflections on the 2001 Army-Navy Game that was played only two months after 9/11.
• Miami is betting big on Mario Cristobal to bring back The U.
• Auburn’s Bruce Pearl has been suspended for NCAA violations.

All right, and now for a special extended Friday of picks to get you through the entire weekend.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Bucks at Rockets, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Bucks -9 (-110): The Houston Rockets are the hottest team in the NBA, which is a crazy sentence considering they’re supposed to be rebuilding, but it’s true. After starting the season 1-16, Houston has won seven straight to improve to 8-16. So let’s bet against them! I mean, why not? Sure, they’ve won seven straight, but they were 1-16. This could just be regression to the mean!

All right, so it’s more than that. The truth is the Rockets have been exceptional on the offensive end during this run, with an offensive rating of 118.6. That number would rank first in the league if Houston had been doing it all season long, but it can’t, and it won’t. There’s a decent chance that run ends tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the league in the defending champions, and what’s more problematic for Houston is that while its offense has been phenomenal, its defensive rating over this win streak is 111.4. That would rank 26th in the league over the entire season.

Jonathan Coachman is joined by Allie O’Neill, Justin Perri and Micah Roberts to dish out Friday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.  

Also, it needs to be pointed out that while the Rockets just beat the Brooklyn Nets, most of these wins have come against other terrible teams. The Nets and Bulls are the only teams with winning records they’ve beaten in this stretch. Order should be restored tonight.

Key Trend: The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: Both the SportsLine Projection Model and SportsLine expert handicapper Matt Severance are on the same side of this spread tonight, but are they on the same side as me?

💰The Picks

🏀 NBA

Knicks at Raptors, 7:30 p.m | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Under 207.5 (-110) — Don’t look now, but after a terrific start for unders in Knicks games this year, things have begun to head in the opposite direction. The last five Knicks games have gone over, but I’m not letting that impact how I feel about tonight’s matchup or this total.

These are two of the slowest-moving teams in the NBA, with the Knicks rankings 25th in pace and Toronto 28th. While the Knicks are slow overall, they’re even slower on the road as their pace drops from 97.67 at home to 96.08 on the road. The same can be said of Toronto but in the other direction. At home, the Raptors pace is the slowest of any home team in the league at 95.81. Two average offenses moving slowly doesn’t usually lead to many points.

Key Trend: The under is 11-5 in Toronto’s last 16 as a home favorite.

🏈 College Football

Army vs. Navy, Saturday, 3 p.m | TV: CBS

The Pick: Under 34.5 (-110) — You might think this is insane, and I understand. The total is ridiculously low, but it’s that low for a reason. Games between two option offenses usually don’t feature a lot of points. Sure, you get a crazy 45-42 shootout in which neither team knows how to tackle once in a while, but those instances are rare. These teams run the ball almost exclusively, and they don’t have a lot of big runs. In the rushing game, Army ranks 67th nationally in my explosive play metric while Navy ranks 125th. This means both teams need to move the ball down the field methodically, four to five yards at a time. So a standard 75-yard touchdown drive will take around 13 plays, with the clock never stopping.

That limits the overall number of possessions, limiting the overall opportunities to score points. That’s why the under is 40-9-1 in games between the service academies (Air Force, Army and Navy) since the 2005 season. Even if this bet loses, it’s the right play.

Key Trend: The under is 40-9-1 in games between service academies since 2005.

🏈 NFL

Falcons at Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m | TV: Fox

The Pick: Over 41.5 (-110) — I’m going against the grain a bit on this one. This is not a matchup of two high-powered teams. The Panthers have Cam Newton’s corpse at QB, lost Christian McCaffery to yet another injury, and fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Falcons have the corpse of Matt Ryan at QB, are still without Calvin Ridley, and have built their offense around a player who built his career out of being awesome on special teams.

So it’s no surprise this total is this low, but I think we’re paying too much attention to these offenses and not enough to the defenses. Atlanta is one of the worst in the NFL, allowing 2.41 points per drive (31st), and it should help solve a lot of Carolina’s offensive woes. As for Carolina, the Panthers rank fifth overall in points allowed per drive at 1.68, but that’s fallen apart as of late. In the last two weeks, Washington and Miami — not the most potent offenses out there — have scored 2.52 points per possession against this Panthers defense. We might have an unexpected shootout on our hands.

Key Trend: There aren’t many trends that support this, which only makes me like it more.

Lions at Broncos, Sunday, 4:05 p.m | TV: Fox

The Pick: Lions +10 (-110) — Listen, I know the Lions are awful but as bad as they are, they’re not as bad as their record suggests. Nor are they so bad that I’m willing to trust the Denver Broncos as double-digit favorites against another NFL team. The Broncos offense is anemic. It’s averaging 1.89 points per possession (20th) and is awful in the red zone (27th in red-zone efficiency) and worst in goal-to-go situations (30th). A team that continually has to settle for field goals is not the team you want to trust to cover 10 points.

Now, that’s not to say the Lions will make life easy on us. They won’t, but that’s part of the appeal for Detroit. Not even their losses come that easy. The average margin of defeat in Detroit’s 10 losses this season is 11.5 points, but that’s skewed by a 44-6 loss to the Eagles. Remove that game, and the number drops to 8.6. Seven of their 10 losses have come by 10 points or fewer, and five have been one-score losses. In the NFL, it’s hard to blow teams out unless you’re one of the elite teams in the league, and Denver is not, so I’m not going to bet on it happening.

Key Trend: The Lions are 8-4 ATS this season and have been underdogs in all 12.

⚽ Soccer

Liverpool vs. Aston Villa, Saturday, 10 a.m | TV: USA Network

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-130) — Aston Villa has improved under Stephen Gerrard, and now Gerrard is facing the club where he grew up and became Stephen Gerrard. This match will mean a lot to him, and I don’t expect him to change his approach. While Villa has improved under Gerrard, the truth is that the team’s attack is largely dependent on set pieces and corners. They’ve struggled to score in open play all season and still are. Where they’ve improved is defensively.

In 11 matches under Dean Smith, Villa allowed an average xG of 1.45 per match. In four matches under Gerrard, that number has plummeted to 0.85, including holding Manchester City to only 0.9 in a 2-1 loss. Gerrard has Villa playing a 4-3-2-1 formation that features two “attacking” midfielders playing inside rather than on the wings. Essentially, he’s trying to clog up the middle of the field, and it’s been effective. It should continue, and I expect it’ll frustrate Liverpool enough to keep this game from having too many goals. Also, as I said, Villa is set-piece dependent at the moment, and I’m not sure how much of the ball it’ll see in this match to get itself in position for those set pieces.

Key Trend: Aston Villa have allowed only 0.85 xG per match under Gerrard

Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid, Sunday, 3 p.m | TV: ESPN+

The Pick: Real Madrid (+111) — El Derbi Madrileño, also known as El Derbi or The Madrid Derby, takes place Sunday afternoon and is probably the weekend’s biggest game. It comes after both teams finished group play in the Champions League and moved on, though Real Madrid had a much easier path. Real was shocked in a 2-1 loss to Sheriff Tiraspol but won its other five matches by a combined score of 13-1, including two wins over Inter Milan. Atlético, on the other hand, was in the Group of Death and needed a 3-1 win over Porto to finish second behind Liverpool. The match reflected what the entire season has been like for Atlético: a struggle.

While Barcelona’s struggles grab the headlines in Spain, Atlético Madrid is in fourth place and 10 points behind Real Madrid in the standings. And while it leads the league in expected goals (xG) allowed, the 16 goals it’s given up in 15 matches ranks seventh. I don’t think it’s bad luck, as much as a team that’s aging a bit and just not as solid. Particularly away from home, which is where they’ll be Sunday. Atléti has allowed only six goals on 4.9 xG in eight matches in league play, which is terrific. On the road, those numbers inflate to 10 goals allowed on 7.3 xG in seven matches. And that hasn’t just been the case in La Liga, but the Champions League as well. Diego Simeone’s team has always been known for being a giant pain in the butt to break down, but that’s not the case this season, and they aren’t potent enough in attack to make up for it.

Key Trend: Atlético Madrid allows an average of 1.04 xG per match on the road compared to 0.61 at home.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: MMA expert Andrew Gombas has shared his favorite plays for Saturday’s UFC 269 event.

 🏀 Tonight’s Parlay

Our college basketball parlays are hot so let’s not mess with a good thing. Tonight’s pays +126.

• Furman (-320)
• North Dakota State (-800)
• Memphis (-550)
• Louisville (-340)