Saturday, April 1, 2023

2022 Masters odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions by top model that nailed seven golf majors

Tiger Woods isn’t the only former Masters champion shaping up to be a game-time decision at Augusta National, as defending champion Hideki Matsuyama is banged up as well. Battling neck and back injuries, Matsuyama withdrew from his last two tournaments and said he hasn’t been able to take a full swing due to the pain. He’s hoping enough of the discomfort subsides by his 10:45 a.m. ET tee time on Thursday. His group will begin 11 minutes after Woods in the Round 1 Masters tee times. The 2022 Masters groups include Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and James Piot, who won the U.S. Amateur Championship last year.

Even with his status in question, Matsuyama’s 2022 Masters odds have held steady at 40-1 at Caesars Sportsbook. Playing partner Thomas is near the top of Caesars’ odds board at 14-1, which trails only Jon Rahm at 10-1. Other 2022 Masters contenders for the green jacket include Dustin Johnson (16-1), Rory McIlroy (18-1), Collin Morikawa (20-1) and Brooks Koepka (20-1). Before locking in any 2022 Masters picks of your own or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, it’s up over $8,000 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. In addition, McClure’s model was all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the Masters 2022 field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2022 Masters leaderboard.

Model’s top 2022 Masters predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2022 Masters: Rory McIlroy, a 20-time PGA Tour champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles at Augusta and finishes outside the top 10. The 32-year-old finished on top of the leaderboard at the CJ Cup earlier this season, his 20th PGA Tour victory. 

McIlroy is a four-time major champion and can complete the career grand slam with a victory at Augusta National. However, he has been unable to grasp the coveted green jacket despite being in the mix on numerous occasions. McIlroy has finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight starts at Augusta, but the pressure of winning the green jacket seems to be weighing on him. He’s finished 21st or worse in two of his last three starts at Augusta, which includes a missed cut in 2021. He’s not a strong pick to win it all, and there are far better values in the Masters Tournament 2022 field.

Another surprise: Collin Morikawa, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The two-time major champion made his Augusta National debut in 2020 when he finished 44th, but he made strides by his second appearance and finished 18th in 2021. Morikawa has developed a reputation as a clutch performer who plays his best under the brightest of lights, as four of his last six major appearances have resulted in top-10 finishes.

After never ranking in the top 125 on tour in strokes gained putting, Morikawa now ranks 31st, which is among the top 15 percent on tour. He’s maintained his extraordinary ball-striking and ranks in the top 10 in strokes gained off-the-tee, driving accuracy percentage and greens in regulation percentage. Morikawa is the No. 3-ranked golfer in the world so, given his long Masters odds, he carries plenty of value as one of the 2022 Masters sleepers, per the model. See who else you should back here.

How to make 2022 Masters picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the 2022 Masters, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 Masters leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed seven golf majors and is up over $8,000 since the restart.

2022 Masters odds

Jon Rahm +1000

Justin Thomas +1400

Dustin Johnson +1600

Cameron Smith +1600

Scottie Scheffler +1600

Rory McIlroy +1800

Brooks Koepka +2000

Patrick Cantlay +2000

Jordan Spieth +2000

Viktor Hovland +2000

Collin Morikawa +2000

Xander Schauffele +2200

Will Zalatoris +2800

Bryson DeChambeau +3500

Sam Burns +3500

Shane Lowry +3500

Tiger Woods +4000  

Matthew Fitzpatrick +4000

Hideki Matsuyama +4000

Corey Conners +4000

Tyrrell Hatton +4000

Daniel Berger +4000

Louis Oosthuizen +4000

Joaquin Niemann +4500

Paul Casey +5000

Adam Scott +5000

Russell Henley +5000

Sungjae Im +5000

Marc Leishman +5000

Tony Finau +5000

Tommy Fleetwood +5500

Billy Horschel +5500

Si-Woo Kim +6500

Justin Rose +6500

Bubba Watson +6500

Patrick Reed +6500

Abraham Ancer +6500

Sergio Garcia +6500

Gary Woodland +7000

Seamus Power +8000

Max Homa +8000

Jason Kokrak +10000

Webb Simpson +10000

Talor Gooch +10000

Brian Harman +10000

Robert Macintyre +10000

Kevin Kisner +10000

Thomas Pieters +10000

Cameron Young +12500

Matthew Wolff +12500

Tom Hoge +12500

Cameron Champ +12500

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12500

Kevin Na +12500

Francesco Molinari +12500

Luke List +12500

Lee Westwood +12500

Erik van Rooyen +15000

Harold Varner+15000

Sepp Straka +15000

Lucas Herbert +20000

Cam Davis +20000

Mackenzie Hughes +20000

Ryan Palmer +20000

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +20000

Danny Willett +20000

Stewart Cink +20000

J.J. Spaun +20000

Padraig Harrington +25000

Takumi Kanaya +25000

Garrick Higgo +25000

Min Woo Lee +25000

Zach Johnson +25000

Keita Nakajima +30000

Charl Schwartzel +30000

Harry Higgs +30000

Lucas Glover +30000

Guido Migliozzi +40000

Hudson Swafford +40000

Bernhard Langer +75000

Aaron Jarvis +100000

James Piot +100000

Stewart Hagestad +100000

Fred Couples +100000

Vijay Singh +100000

Austin Greaser +100000

Mike Weir +100000

Jose Maria Olazabal +200000

Laird Shepherd +200000

Larry Mize +250000

Sandy Lyle +250000

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