Thursday, May 19, 2022

76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 6 best bets by model on 86-58 run

The Philadelphia 76ers aim to avoid elimination from the 2022 NBA playoffs on Thursday evening. The Sixers trail the Miami Heat by a 3-2 margin in the Eastern Conference semifinals after Miami thumped Philadelphia in Game 5. Game 6 arrives on Thursday in Philadelphia, with the Heat seeking a win that would clinch a berth in the Eastern Conference Finals. Kyle Lowry (hamstring) is out for Miami, with Tyler Herro (ankle), Caleb Martin (ankle), Max Strus (hamstring), P.J. Tucker (calf) and Gabe Vincent (knee) listed as questionable. Joel Embiid (face, thumb) and Matisse Thybulle (foot) are listed as questionable for Philadelphia. 

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphias as the two-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 207 in the latest 76ers vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. 76ers picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the fourth full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Sixers, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Sixers vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. 76ers spread: 76ers -2 
  • Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 207 points 
  • Heat vs. 76ers money line: 76ers -135, Heat +115
  • MIA: The Heat are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • PHL: The 76ers are 6-5 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

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Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s offense was outstanding in Game 5, scoring 1.27 points per possession and shooting 54 percent with more than twice as many assists (26) as turnovers (11) in a dominant win. In fact, Miami’s strong offense helps to lead the team to an outstanding +9.8 net rating in the playoffs, but the Heat are even better on defense. Miami is allowing only 105.1 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, second-best in the NBA, and the Heat held the 76ers to less than 0.9 points per possession in Game 5. 

For the full postseason, opponents are shooting only 44.4 percent from the field and 33.2 percent from 3-point range against Miami, and the Heat are allowing only 37.2 points in the paint per game. The Heat also led the league in points allowed in the paint during the regular season, with top-five marks in 3-point defense, assist prevention, field goal percentage allowed and turnover creation. In the playoffs, Miami is allowing only 18.9 assists per game and creating nearly 16 turnovers per game, with the Heat flummoxing opponents with a dynamic and versatile approach.

Why the 76ers can cover

The Sixers boast a high-powered offense and plenty of star power. Philadelphia won both games at home in this series after the return of Embiid, and the All-NBA center led the league in scoring with 30.6 points per game in 2021-22. He is flanked by a pair of prolific guards in James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, both of whom are averaging more than 19 points per game in the playoffs. As a team, the 76ers are scoring 113.5 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, a stellar figure by any description. Philadelphia boasts a 60.1 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs, with 47.1 percent shooting from the field and 37.7 percent from 3-point range. 

The 76ers also lead the NBA playoffs in fast break points (15.5 per game), with stellar marks at the free throw line with 24.1 attempts per game and an 84.9 percent accuracy clip. In the regular season, Philadelphia also ranked in the top four of the the NBA in turnover avoidance, committing only 12.5 giveaways per game, and no team committed fewer live-ball turnovers (6.6 per game) than the 76ers.

How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with seven players projected to score at least 18 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s 76ers vs. Heat Game 6 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. 76ers? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. 76ers spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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