Tuesday, July 5, 2022

2022 U.S. Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, golf predictions by top-rated model that nailed the Masters

The 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass. will begin on Thursday, and the third major of the season will mark the first time we’ll see LIV Golf players and PGA Tour members competing in the same event. Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau are three of the biggest names to leave the PGA Tour for LIV Golf, and all three will compete in the U.S. Open 2022. Johnson and DeChambeau are past champions of the event, while Mickelson needs a U.S. Open golf title to complete his career grand slam. The latest 2022 U.S. Open odds from Caesars Sportsbook list Johnson at 40-1, DeChambeau at 80-1 and Mickelson at 150-1.

Following an impressive win last week at the RBC Canadian Open, Rory McIlroy is the 10-1 favorite, while Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler are 12-1 in the 2022 U.S. Open field. The first 2022 U.S. Open tee times are at 6:45 a.m. ET on Thursday. Before locking in your 2022 U.S. Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the PGA Tour predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven golf model

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it’s up over $9,500 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2022 U.S. Open golf tournament is approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2022 U.S. Open predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2022: Scottie Scheffler, the world’s No. 1 player and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Scheffler has been on fire this season, producing four wins and seven top-10 finishes, highlighted by his victory at Augusta. But he’s cooled a bit the last few weeks. 

He’s finished 15th or worse in his last three events and missed the cut at the PGA Championship. He also hasn’t found much success at the U.S. Open, missing the cut twice in four tries. The model doesn’t like him at these premium odds, making him a golfer to fade in your 2022 U.S. Open bets. 

Another surprise: Brooks Koepka, a 30-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the 2022 U.S. Open title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Koepka has arguably been the best U.S. Open player of this generation.

Koepka won the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills and the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, becoming the first player since Curtis Strange to win the title in back-to-back years. He finished second at the 2019 U.S. Open and was fourth in 2021. Koepka has played the U.S. Open eight times and only finished outside the top 20 once, in his first U.S. Open in 2012. He’s down to No. 19 in the Official World Golf Ranking after he’s battled injuries in recent years, but he always seems to be a factor at the national championship.

How to make 2022 U.S. Open picks

The model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. His best bets also include a triple-digit long underdog. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s picks here.

So who will win the U.S. Open 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2022 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including this year’s Masters.

2022 U.S. Open odds, field

Rory McIlroy 10-1

Justin Thomas 12-1

Scottie Scheffler 12-1

Jon Rahm 12-1

Cameron Smith 14-1

Jordan Spieth 20-1

Collin Morikawa 22-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 22-1

Patrick Cantlay 22-1

Xander Schauffele 22-1

Will Zalatoris 22-1

Shane Lowry 25-1

Viktor Hovland 25-1

Sam Burns 25-1

Joaquin Niemann 25-1

Tony Finau 30-1

Brooks Koepka 30-1

Hideki Matsuyama 35-1

Cameron Young 35-1

Billy Horschel 40-1

Daniel Berger 40-1

Max Homa 40-1

Dustin Johnson 40-1

Sungjae Im 40-1

Tommy Fleetwood 40-1

Corey Conners 50-1

Mito Pereira 50-1

Davis Riley 50-1

Justin Rose 60-1

Abraham Ancer 60-1

Louis Oosthuizen 65-1

Tyrrell Hatton 65-1

Webb Simpson 70-1


Keegan Bradley 70-1

Talor Gooch 80-1

Aaron Wise 80-1

Harold Varner 80-1

Patrick Reed 80-1

Bryson DeChambeau 80-1

Gary Woodland 80-1

Adam Scott 100-1

Sergio Garcia 100-1

Seamus Power 100-1

Jason Kokrak 100-1

Si-Woo Kim 100-1

Marc Leishman 125-1

Russell Henley 125-1

Sebastian Munoz 125-1

Tom Hoge 125-1

Brian Harman 150-1

Phil Mickelson 150-1

Kevin Na 150-1

Kyoung-Hoon Lee 150-1

Francesco Molinari 150-1

Thomas Pieters 150-1

Alex Noren 150-1

Luke List 150-1

Stewart Cink 150-1

Sam Horsfield 200-1

Lucas Herbert 200-1

Cameron Tringale 200-1

Lanto Griffin 200-1

Min Woo Lee 200-1

Erik Van Rooyen 200-1

Scott Stallings 200-1

Joel Dahmen 200-1

Patrick Rodgers 200-1

Sepp Straka 200-1

Kevin Kisner 200-1

Adri Arnaus 200-1

Victor Perez 200-1

Harris English 200-1

Ryan Fox 200-1

Mackenzie Hughes 200-1

Denny McCarthy 200-1

Branden Grace 200-1

Wyndham Clark 200-1

Guido Migliozzi 200-1

Matthew Nesmith 250-1

Kurt Kitayama 250-1

Troy Merritt 250-1


Beau Hossler 250-1

Joohyung Kim 250-1

Kalle Samooja 250-1

Shaun Norris 300-1

Sean Crocker 300-1

Joseph Bramlett 300-1

Wil Besseling 300-1

Danny Lee 300-1

Thorbjorn Olesen 300-1

Nick Taylor 300-1

Kevin Chappell 300-1

M.J. Daffue 300-1

Andrew Putnam 400-1

Richard Mansell 400-1

Jinichiro Kozuma 400-1

Adam Schenk 400-1

Richard Bland 400-1

Tomoyasu Sugiyama 400-1

Taylor Montgomery 400-1

Yannik Paul 400-1


Rikuya Hoshino 400-1

Keita Nakajima 400-1

Marcel Schneider 400-1

Erik Barnes 400-1

Andrew Novak 400-1

Harry Hall 500-1

Bo Hoag 500-1

Jonas Blixt 500-1

Roger Sloan 500-1

Ben Silverman 500-1

Grayson Murray 500-1

Sam Bennett 500-1

Sebastian Soderberg 500-1

Brian Stuard 500-1

Hayden Buckley 500-1

David Lingmerth 500-1

Jim Furyk 500-1

Satoshi Kodaira 500-1

Callum Tarren 500-1

Travis Vick 500-1

Sam Stevens 500-1

Todd Sinnott 750-1

Chan Kim 750-1

Stewart Hagestad 750-1

Jediah Morgan 750-1

Austin Greaser 750-1

Chase Seiffert 750-1

Michael Thorbjornsen 750-1

Sean Jacklin 750-1

Fred Biondi 750-1

Davis Shore 750-1

William Mouw 750-1

Daijiro Izumida 750-1

James Piot 750-1

Adrien Dumont de Cahssart 750-1

Keith Greene 1000-1

Isaiah Salinda 1000-1

Jesse Mueller 1000-1

Chris Gotterup 1000-1

Ryan Gerard 1000-1

Ben Lorenz 1000-1

Luke Gannon 1000-1

Brady Calkins 1000-1

Nick Dunlap 1000-1

Maxwell Moldovan 1000-1

Chris Naegel 1000-1

Charles Reiter 1000-1

Matt Mccarty 1000-1

Laird Shepherd 1000-1

Andrew Beckler 1000-1

Fran Quinn 1000-1

Brandon Matthews 1000-1

Caleb Manuel 1000-1

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