When the AP Top 25 poll voters fill out their college football rankings ballots on Sunday with Week 10 in the books, many will be stuck with a similar question to ponder: Other than Georgia, who looked the part of a national championship contender this week?
The AP Top 25 always gets a little bit of a shake up in response to the initial College Football Playoff Rankings, at least in terms of the conversation around the sport. The CFP Selection Committee of a baker’s dozen has far fewer voters than the 60-plus electorate of the AP Top 25, and therefore, it’s more prone to decisions that duck what has been ironed out as the popular consensus. In some years, AP voters may react to the committee’s decisions and follow their lead, but on Saturday, many of the teams at the top of the rankings did little to strengthen their position in the debate for the top four spot.
Michigan State was No. 5 in last week’s AP Top 25 but showed up as No. 3 in the CFP Rankings; the Spartans fell at Purdue. Alabama was No. 3 in the AP Top 25 and No. 2 in the CFP Rankings; the Crimson Tide had to scrap until the final minutes to beat unranked LSU. Cincinnati was one of the big stories of the week after being No. 2 in the AP Top and No. 6 in the CFP Rankings; the Bearcats did nothing to prove the AP voters right in their 28-20 win against Tulsa.
Even Oregon and Ohio State, each on the road against conference foes, played too close to the competition to expect a real jump in the rankings. If anything, Oklahoma could see some more momentum just by avoiding action while other teams were grinding out wins. Ultimately, the combination of hard-fought wins leave us with the expectation of status quo up top, though any slight shifts will be indicative of how voters are both reacting to Saturday’s results and the selection committee’s decisions.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday after Week 10.
1. Georgia (Last week — 1): When the primary discussion around college football is “who other than Georgia …” when talking about national title contenders, it only cements the Bulldogs’ status at No. 1.
2. Oklahoma (4): The Sooners were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Baylor. They move up amid disappointing yet victorious performances by the two teams succeeding them.
3. Alabama (3): The No. 2 spot was there for the taking after Cincinnati nearly blew its unbeaten record against Tulsa, but there’s no expectation of a jump up — even in the wake of the CFP ranking the Crimson Tide at No. 2 — following the 20-14 win against LSU as a 28.5-point favorite.
4. Cincinnati (2): Controversial goal line decisions aren’t doing anything to bolster the voter confidence in the Bearcats, but still, Luke Fickell’s team remains unbeaten and worthy of top-four consideration following the closer-than-expected 28-20 win against Tulsa.
5. Oregon (7): The quality of the Ducks’ win against Washington provides the evidence needed to match the committee’s decision to put Oregon ahead of Ohio State.
6. Ohio State (6): Saturday’s 26-17 win against Nebraska marked the second straight game the offense hasn’t cracked 35 points after going for 40-plus in five straight wins.
7. Notre Dame (8): Brian Kelly improved to 9-2 against Navy, and the Fighting Irish cruised to a 34-6 win in the renewal of one of college football’s great intersectional rivalries.
8. Michigan State (5): The fall could be more dramatic than what we’re projecting, but the win against Michigan provides a pretty high floor for the Spartans following the 40-29 loss at Purdue.
9. Michigan (9): No major changes expected after the Wolverines’ 29-7 win against Indiana.
10. Oklahoma State (11): In what many concluded was an upset spot, the Cowboys answered the call and rode its dominant defense to a 24-3 win at West Virginia.
11. Texas A&M (13): Much of the narrative around both teams had been the improvement of the quarterbacks, but the Aggies’ win against Auburn was all about the defenses and Jimbo Fisher’s group proved to be the better group as it even added to the scoring in 20-3 win.
12. Ole Miss (15): No friendly homecoming for Hugh Freeze as the Rebels jumped out in front early and cruised to a 27-14 win against Liberty. In fact, it was less than friendly.
13. Wake Forest (10): We’re not projecting the Demon Deacons falling too far in the rankings because it was the team’s first loss of the season and the context of the 58-55 defeat at North Carolina was a game that could have gone either way. Still, a loss is a loss, and now Wake Forest will be judged against other one-loss and two-loss teams in ways that will result in a drop behind some two-loss teams.
14. UTSA (16): The Roadrunners not only won but showed out against rival UTEP, jumping out to an early lead and defending it the entire way to improve to 9-0 on the season. Southern Miss, UAB and North Texas are the remaining opponents on the schedule, with the next two being at home and the meeting with the Blazers likely to determine the West Division winner in Conference USA.
15. BYU (17): No major change in the pecking order following a 59-14 win against Idaho State.
16. Iowa (19): An ugly 17-12 win at Northwestern isn’t going to inspire confidence that Iowa has found a late season surge to challenge for the Big Ten championship, but it’s also not going to lead to a drop in the rankings.
17. Houston (20): After an early scare the Cougars took care of business in a 53-42 win at South Florida.
18. Coastal Carolina (21): Not being ranked by the committee won’t deter the AP voters, who we expect will keep the Chanticleers in the top 25 and even move them up following a 28-8 win at Georgia Southern without quarterback Grayson McCall.
19. Penn State (22): A strong get-right opportunity proved to be a solid get-right 31-14 win for the Nittany Lions against Maryland.
20. Louisiana (24): The Ragin’ Cajuns avoided an upset on Thursday night to clinch the Sun Belt West title thanks to a win against Georgia State.
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21. Wisconsin (NR): The scoreboard shock from a 52-3 win against Rutgers is going to help boost the Badgers even further than they might have already risen in the rankings following the committee’s tap as a top 25 team.
22. Pittsburgh (NR): Like Wisconsin, Pitt was unranked in last week’s AP Top 25 and then ranked by the committee. By hanging a 50-burger in Durham, North Carolina, against Duke, the Panthers showed enough to get the co-sign from the AP voters following Week 10.
23. NC State (NR): Like Wisconsin and Pitt, the Wolfpack were also ranked by the committee after finishing just outside the top 25 in last week’s balloting. It’s possible we see NC State as high as No. 21 following its road win against Florida State, but we’re going a little more conservative with this projection.
24. Auburn (12): There’s nothing “bad” about a 20-3 defeat at Texas A&M, but that loss is a deal-breaker for some of the voters. This is probably the floor for the Tigers with the ceiling somewhere closer to Coastal Carolina or Penn State.
25. Baylor (14): There is a lot of “bad” about the loss to loss to TCU, which just parted ways with Gary Patterson, but given the other options we’re projecting, the Bears will barely hang on in the top 25 thanks to that 7-2 record and the win against BYU.
Projected to drop out: No. 18 Kentucky, No. 23 SMU, No. 25 Fresno State
