We have an NFC North showdown between the Packers and Bears that’ll put a bow on Sunday’s action in the NFL. Green Bay is looking to keep pace in the NFC playoff picture as it aims to earn the top seed in the conference. A win could also go a long way in helping the Packers clinch a playoff berth as early as Week 14. Meanwhile, the Bears will be getting rookie sensation Justin Fields back under center after the first-year quarterback missed the past two games due to a rib injury.
Below, we’ll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has on deck for us. We’ll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Sunday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Dec. 12 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Packers -12.5, O/U 43
Line movement
Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -12.5
The early look on this line had the Packers and 11-point favorite in this divisional head-to-head and that’s notably increased since. Following Week 13, this spread jumped two points to -13, but has since come down to Packers -12.5 as of Friday. That half-point dip midweek could be a reaction to the news that Fields will be starting for Chicago.
The pick: Packers -12.5. This is a big number, but the Packers have shown an ability to roll against bad teams. Green Bay is 9-3 ATS on the season, are tied for an NFL-best 5-0 ATS at home, and Aaron Rodgers has, in fact, owned these Bears over his career. The Packers QB is 21-5 over his career against Chicago and has thrown more touchdowns (57) against them than any other opponent. We also don’t know how healthy Fields is at at the moment, which could also be a major factor in Green Bay covering. The Bears are also 0-4 (SU and ATS) in their last four games on “Sunday Night Football”.
Key trend: Packers are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Over/Under total
The total opened at 45, but has since taken a dive as it hit 44.5 coming out Week 13. Since then, it’s dipped to 43 as of Friday afternoon.
The pick: Under 43. While the Packers are, on paper, a threat to explode at any moment offensively, the Under is 8-4 with them this season. That’s the same mark as Chicago for the year, which is also taking a 4-2 Under road record to Lambeau. The Bears are averaging just 16.8 points per game this season (third-worst in the NFL) and are facing a Packers defense that has been able to keep teams out of the end zone at home. This season, Green Bay has an NFL-best 40% red-zone scoring rate allowed at home.
Key trend: Under is 5-1 in Packers last six games as the favorite.
Aaron Rodgers props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -210, Under +170)
- Passing yards: 259.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +180, Under -220)
- Completions: 23.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
- Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
- Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
The Over of Rodgers’ passing touchdown prop will likely hit (he has nine multi-passing touchdown games this season), but the value isn’t there at -210. That said, the Over on his passing yards prop of 259.5 is intriguing. Rodgers is averaging 275.2 passing yards per game at home this season. Chicago also ranks 22nd in the NFL against the pass in DVOA.
Justin Fields props
- Passing touchdowns: 0.5 (Over -200, Under +165)
- Passing yards: 188.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -200, Under +165)
- Completions: 16.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Passing attempts: 29.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Longest passing completion: 32.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
- Rushing yards: 33.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
I’d lean Under on Fields’ passing attempts prop at 29.5 (-115). He’s only gone over this number once this season and is averaging 22.9 pass attempts per game over his eight starts. Meanwhile, in the five games before he missed time due to injury, Fields was averaging 50.4 rushing yards per game, which is well over the 33.5 prop he has for Sunday night.
Player props to consider
Aaron Jones total receiving yards: Over 23.5 (-115). Jones could be one of the beneficiaries of the Packers losing Randall Cobb in the passing game. While he wasn’t a factor as a receiver last time out against the Rams, Jones is still working his way back from injury. With a bye week under his belt, he should return to his typical role out of the backfield to be in a position to go over this number for the sixth time this season.
David Montgomery total rushing attempts: Over 14.5 (-130). Montgomery is arguably the Bears’ best playmaker, so they should look to put the ball in his hands as much as possible in a game where they’ll need to move the ball effectively. He’s also gone over this number in two-straight games and in five of his eight games played on the season.
